سرگرمی

How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained

Buy my book Humble Pi now!
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.
My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
www.harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/
Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video: irface.info/my/fy-lm-h-y/Zq-OqpuwloR3x5c.html&ab_channel=Geosquare
Paper: mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf
And here is Dream's reply.
Video: irface.info/my/fy-lm-h-y/asumo7XWgY6evrQ.html&ab_channel=DreamXD
Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/view
"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
irface.info/my/fy-lm-h-y/jZSNp8vYZG-n06g.html
"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html
Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
www.statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-region/
Roulette records.
www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/
CORRECTIONS
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.
www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
www.janestreet.com/
Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
US book: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback

نظر 

  1. Stand-up Maths

    Stand-up Maths

    پیش 28 روز

    I’m not commenting on how many takes that took. But feel free to guess! (And if you must know: the complete footage of every attempt will be uploaded to Patreon. patreon.com/standupmaths )

    • Charske Vlogs

      Charske Vlogs

      پیش 8 روز

      I wonder how long the bball thing took XD

    • kkmac

      kkmac

      پیش 8 روز

      @BlacksmithTWD These are all of the streams Dream did in 1 week, they are all uploaded on twitch

    • kkmac

      kkmac

      پیش 8 روز

      @TheAtheistPaladin I think 100 million absolute best case. Most likely, more like 1 trillion

    • Shaquille Oatmeal

      Shaquille Oatmeal

      پیش 8 روز

      @Douglas Morrison Probably did but he realized it would be good for the video so he re did it until he didn't smile.

    • Fred Scooby

      Fred Scooby

      پیش 8 روز

      I love minecraft, and find it too be highly mathematical, I am sure you found this to be true as well, I came for the math though and thanks. My fahter and I both actually love this game, we use the mathematics embedded in the game to create massive structures in Survival. And in doing so, we learned to count at incredibly fast rates, although, only usually based on 2 and 4 though, or sometimes 64 if we must. It has created an interesting view for myself, as I began to notice real mathematical patterns in the real world, which was really wild.

  2. OrangeFreeman

    OrangeFreeman

    پیش 8 دقیقه

    О, повезло, повезло

  3. Cookie Virus

    Cookie Virus

    پیش 25 دقیقه

    This is the best way in understanding math more with popular topics

  4. Thomas George

    Thomas George

    پیش 31 دقیقه

    That depends on if you understand how random number generation is happening. If I take that the random number generation is based on time. Then it would be possible to calculate when would be the best time.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 3 دقیقه

      It isn't. Also, if Dream had found a way to game the RNG, he should have used that as his defense for why he was getting so many drops and not "nah, this luck is not that rare"

  5. muffty halbgar

    muffty halbgar

    پیش ساعت

    The very last seconds got me cracked up. :D

  6. Juancho Gonzalez

    Juancho Gonzalez

    پیش ساعت

    Great video earned a sub

  7. tristan flodin

    tristan flodin

    پیش 2 ساعت

    If the randomness is based on time like it is in many games, it can be gamed

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 2 ساعت

      A little more complex. It defines a seed based on time. That seed progresses every time it's triggered by something to a new value that you can't predict. In the nether, where you're going to be doing this, the lava will be triggering the seed thousands of times each second, making it completely impossible to aim at any value.

  8. bro wtf

    bro wtf

    پیش 4 ساعت

    that feeling when you don't understand what the person is saying anymore but you're still listening with a smile as if you understood what they're saying

  9. Not Holdini

    Not Holdini

    پیش 4 ساعت

    “He’s not cheating he’s just really good”-Any Dream Stan

  10. Deniel Liusinskij

    Deniel Liusinskij

    پیش 4 ساعت

    love how people think he cheats when he streams all of his speedrunning and he makes random seed worlds

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 4 ساعت

      That's why it was easy to see that he was cheating, yes.

  11. Faire Play

    Faire Play

    پیش 5 ساعت

    An event so big and controversial had Matt do the math. I wouldn't be surprised if Tom thought about doing the computer science behind it. What a world~ Or the things I might not have known

  12. King Jack 2000

    King Jack 2000

    پیش 6 ساعت

    I'm not sure if you will read this but if you compared this with another speed runners numbers

  13. Hippolippo

    Hippolippo

    پیش 6 ساعت

    Wait you wrote humble pi! I loved that book so much! (Will there be a sequel?)

  14. MLIFF

    MLIFF

    پیش 7 ساعت

    What blows my mind is that, even with these odds, he still only got the 4th fastest Speerund. How is that even possible? :D

  15. Burn Stick

    Burn Stick

    پیش 7 ساعت

    I'm sorry but for me thats not really scientific what you are doing. You just went ahead and disregarded completely all of the arguments from dream just because it was written angrily? Seriously? I mean the point of the paper was not to show that the number was possible but that the number itself is calculated wrongly. So everything you did was "ohh this number is impossible to achieve. Whats that? It's disputed? Ohh i don't care".

    • Burn Stick

      Burn Stick

      پیش 4 ساعت

      @Jacob The master66 i don't quite get your point. What I said is that what stand up maths did was not to compare both sides and check the validity but just went with a number (which was disputed by one side) and then just showed how unrealistic it was (which both parties actually agreed on and was the reason why the number is disputed)

    • Jacob The master66

      Jacob The master66

      پیش 4 ساعت

      Well dream is a bias source for this information, of course he would defend himself saying he did nothing wrong, meanwhile the speed run moderator gives reasons why it’s fake, so he has to find his own evidence.

  16. Joshua Gavaghan

    Joshua Gavaghan

    پیش 7 ساعت

    7:17 meta dude.

  17. Azlan Shah

    Azlan Shah

    پیش 7 ساعت

    That basketball throw makes me like and subscribe

  18. William Lyon

    William Lyon

    پیش 8 ساعت

    Odds question!!! I called dice before I rolled them i said I would roll all 6s on my 6 dice, I understand the odds of that are low but didn’t it make the odds even crazier if you factor in me calling what it would be also?? I’m just curious if anyone can figure out for me the odds of me predicting the dice and rolling all 6s.

    • William Lyon

      William Lyon

      پیش 8 ساعت

      @Athenri thanks that seems pretty obvious now thanks a lot.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 8 ساعت

      Well, the probability is the same-ish whether or not you yell "I'ma get six sixes". The difference is that there are some other results that would normally be notable when you consider biases. Like let's say you're playing some game where *any* six of a kind is very valuable. Then clearly there are *six* ways to get that, and we need to adjust for that, because six sixes, six fives, six fours, six threes, six twos and six ones would all have been equally amazing results. In this case, you're locked specifically into that one, particular result, six sixes, so all we need to ask is "what's the probability of getting that particular result" There are 46656 different results when you roll six dice. You're interested in exactly *one* of them, so it would happen, on average, once in 46656 sets of six dice being thrown.

  19. LCB 444

    LCB 444

    پیش 8 ساعت

    Gooood explanation. Thank you !

  20. Vic Jang

    Vic Jang

    پیش 10 ساعت

    Murdered by a IRface video. Thanks for making this. It was both educational and fun to watch. I already watched a few others take on this drama and reached the same conclusion, but your explanation and ability is top-notch.

  21. MonkeyMan075

    MonkeyMan075

    پیش 12 ساعت

    I saw the thumbnail and said bro is that Tom Segura

  22. Cody Taylor

    Cody Taylor

    پیش 12 ساعت

    Well as someone who doesn't really care either way i think this video is the end of the debate. Dream was not playing vanilla minecraft. I really wish he would just admit it but hey im not him i cant possibly understand what he actually did

  23. GamingJoey

    GamingJoey

    پیش 12 ساعت

    While I don't play minecraft, it seems like all these probability analysis are missing something important: random number generators in games are usually not very good and can cause unlikely streaks. And in some games, they are even possible to manipulate by doing specific actions within the game...

  24. liberosis

    liberosis

    پیش 14 ساعت

    man has a conjoined megaminx 17:16 edit: and what looks like a 7x7 18:06

    • Major

      Major

      پیش 10 ساعت

      Nice, a cuber

  25. Dn By

    Dn By

    پیش 16 ساعت

    The Algorithum brought me here ............ 10 minutes in and I think im having a stroke ........ i dont understand a thing he's saying , but i cant move away and stop watching ...... must be a stroke..... send help !

  26. The Optic

    The Optic

    پیش 16 ساعت

    When you're an old Numberphile fan and you rediscover Matt Parker.

  27. Nirvana Supermind

    Nirvana Supermind

    پیش 16 ساعت

    Fun fact: I have over 1K

  28. piratestu

    piratestu

    پیش 16 ساعت

    First and foremost, I believe in his premise and he's absolutely right and it was a good video...what made me cautious is at the start when he said he's a disinterested participant... That's also untrue. This is a piece of culture meant to entertain. He's a professional entertainer. He is paid to be entertaining. You cannot be disinterested when your pay is affected by the outcome of in this case is to probabilities. The 10 Billion Human Second Century was his thing to get the non statistic viewers aware, onboard, entertained. Again, I don't think his maths or anything was wrong and the video is good, I just wish he wouldn't state in his opening that he's unbiased, because he definitely is. Now shower me with dislikes, I feast upon them!

    • piratestu

      piratestu

      پیش ساعت

      @Athenri friend, I want you to think about something... you are white-knighting a guy who spent at least a third of his video talking about a bias in mathematicians but you can’t begin to think that person bringing it up could be biased themselves because they just said so at the beginning? I hope you enjoy the 3+ copies of his book he sold you and, if you’re interested, have I got some snake oil that you’d definitely be keen to know about.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 3 ساعت

      @piratestu man, that's the stupidest argument I've seen today, and I've seen a lot. More than matt is interested in scoring big on a video about potential cheating in Minecraft, he's interested in having integrity as a math person on the internet and among his mathematician friends.

    • piratestu

      piratestu

      پیش 4 ساعت

      @JuukaRock of course he can, but it doesn’t make him unbiased... now if he said he’s disinterested and all proceeds of this video will go to charity, then he can talk... until then he has a financial interest for the video to do well... and ask Fox News the best way to get eyes is to take the most outlandish option.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 8 ساعت

      @JuukaRock Yeah, Matt's disinterested because he doesn't care about the outcome. Was Dream cheating? Was Dream not cheating? Literally doesn't matter to him. No financial stake, no emotional investment in either side. But obviously he's interested in the case because it's a good vessel to display some math.

    • JuukaRock

      JuukaRock

      پیش 8 ساعت

      You can make entertainment videos in support of Dream, like with MatPat who was most certainly not unbiased. Matt here actually doesn't have a financial stake in maintaining a good relationship with Dream, so he can say what he wants.

  29. Andrew Zeitler

    Andrew Zeitler

    پیش 17 ساعت

    The seemly cowbell dfly sin because trout nationally reflect versus a truculent flugelhorn. pink, berserk indonesia

  30. Clockwork Kirlia

    Clockwork Kirlia

    پیش 17 ساعت

    Magnificent editing, and really impressive composure. Oh, yeah, also, the maths was great! Really cleared this issue up for me, as a maths fan vaguely aware of the speedrunning Minecraft community.

  31. Ashe

    Ashe

    پیش 18 ساعت

    Loved that flourish at the end

  32. Thomas Gray

    Thomas Gray

    پیش 18 ساعت

    Would be interested to see how the odds fall for the other item dream got from the piglin barters, are they wildly low, are they about right, did all item get greatly reduced or was it the item in the same group as the ender pearls that took the loss.

  33. Rexy The T. Rex from Jurassic Park

    Rexy The T. Rex from Jurassic Park

    پیش 18 ساعت

    Didn’t even need to watch half a minute to say this. Hypocrite.

    • Raymond Christopher Tanto

      Raymond Christopher Tanto

      پیش 14 ساعت

      @morbideddie he is the hypocrite imagine having a name REXY THE TREX FROM JURRASIC PARK

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 18 ساعت

      Explain.

  34. Mickstache

    Mickstache

    پیش 18 ساعت

    What happened to H John Benjamins deep gravely voice?

  35. RoomerJ

    RoomerJ

    پیش 18 ساعت

    This is a months old story that's already been proven.

    • RoomerJ

      RoomerJ

      پیش 13 دقیقه

      @OmegaAudio Don't want anything "from him". This junk popped up in my suggested videos. He needs to rethink doing viewer requests if his audience is this stupid

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 9 ساعت

      Oh, I see what your saying, making a video on a topic that is both highly requested and still highly misunderstood by a large portion of people is not worthwhile for an education channel because it happened a little while ago. I'll go tell my history teacher to pack up things and find a new career.

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش 16 ساعت

      @RoomerJ He literally said he got a ton of requests for this subject, so he's answering the requests. The hell do you want from him?

    • Becky Brooks

      Becky Brooks

      پیش 17 ساعت

      Is someone forcing you to watch it?

    • RoomerJ

      RoomerJ

      پیش 17 ساعت

      @morbideddie3 weeks and this issue has been solved months before that...

  36. Georg Lehner

    Georg Lehner

    پیش 18 ساعت

    If dream had only fudged the probabilty tables just slightly less, we wouldn't have this controversy and people might just say he got lucky. But he had to overdo it. And not even get the world record for it anyway...

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 18 ساعت

      Possibly - but then he might have had to play more before he had a lucky run good enough to make it, and then it would have been clear once more

  37. Stephen Robinson

    Stephen Robinson

    پیش 19 ساعت

    17.17 boss throw?? We just gonna skip that and not say anything 👑😂

  38. Trash

    Trash

    پیش 19 ساعت

    forsenCD just a dream

  39. Robert Lukotka

    Robert Lukotka

    پیش 19 ساعت

    I was quite disappointed to find out that your reasoning is completely incorrect. If there is possible cherry-picking you have to factor it quite carefully. E.g. if you flip a coin 200 times, and you cherry-pick 100 heads you get an observation that is way more unlikely than your upper bound on what can actually happen. So your claim about 10 billion human second century is incorrect. I would say that it is a dangerous oversimplification. You should calculate each run separately 50 blaze kills -> 35 blaze rods and 44 barters into 7 pearl trades. This is approximately 0.0033 * 0.00373 which is approximately 0.00001 so if you try 100000 times you probably be able to cherry-pick this. And of course if you are really lucky you need much less tries (10000ish) and also several people are trying to do this. This is conceivable if this roll is at the start of the game but I doubt it is. I do not have enough knowledge about Minecraft to judge if this is conceivable.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 19 ساعت

      Yes, if someone is deceptively passing off non-consecutive runs as consecutive, you obviously can't use it as a measure for how likely a particular thing is to happen. That's a silly complaint.

  40. Dopefish

    Dopefish

    پیش 19 ساعت

    statistics is bad math, learn calculus and linear algebra.

  41. Mikkel Ribjerg

    Mikkel Ribjerg

    پیش 20 ساعت

    Wonderfully easy to understand, and somehow fun to watch throughout

  42. Prend Lala

    Prend Lala

    پیش 20 ساعت

    I dont care about Minecraft, but that shot would be normally considered too lucky.

  43. David Mountain

    David Mountain

    پیش 20 ساعت

    @Stand-up Maths: So here's a question: Do the intended probabilities work out as actual probabilities IRL - Computers have problems generating truly random numbers (I've heard) (Maybe this has been solved) is it possible that despite minecraft's published probabilities, a certain processor may generate less than random rolls in favor of a dream run (the equivalent of finding a randomly un-random dice) Perhaps it was played on a processor that had a fault that made it not as random as intended? Thoughts?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 2 ساعت

      @morbideddie just adding to this - if he *did* have some kind of wild glitch that meant he wasn't playing the same kind of game as everyone else, that'd still not qualify for glitchless.

    • kep arani

      kep arani

      پیش 19 ساعت

      Geosquare adressed this on his video

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 19 ساعت

      The RNG in 1.16 minecraft is generated at irregular intervals and is dictated by various factors in the game world which is itself randomly selected. The white noise present due to this makes the RNG effectively random in that it cannot be reasonably manipulated or predicted for either blaze rods or ender pearls. In effect this means it’s random. This is backed up by other runners and simulations showing drop rates in line with the numbers we would expect from random numbers. I’m no computer expert so it maybe possible that dream had a specific processor error that allowed his computer to run normally but happened to give him above average luck in the two items he needed. That said I think the chances of that happening are about as unlikely as him getting the luck he did in the runs.

  44. hog n dog

    hog n dog

    پیش 20 ساعت

    For perspective: there are an est. 7.5x10^18 grains of sand on earth

  45. Charles Heaton

    Charles Heaton

    پیش 20 ساعت

    Amazing video! The only thing I wish got covered, even a quick 5 second explanation would have been on the Random seed generation of minecraft ..... wouldnt the amount of probable worlds make the numbers come alittle closer to realtiy? Because as humans we only have ONE world we can all speed run at the same time :)

    • Charles Heaton

      Charles Heaton

      پیش 20 ساعت

      Though I do realize that the things like the ender pearl and blaze rod chances are unaffected by the worlds terrain so maybe it doesnt matter..... thats why I asked haha

  46. Linus Brink

    Linus Brink

    پیش 23 ساعت

    ...so you say there's a chance?

  47. Primordial 02

    Primordial 02

    پیش 23 ساعت

    Why did I just watch this whole video at 4 am, I don’t even play minecraft, or do any sort of maths if I can help it

  48. trygswyrm woodside

    trygswyrm woodside

    پیش روز

    The whole point of that second article is just so the fans of one side have some lines to spam when they are talking about it in their online social groups. It's very obvious, but just one of those areas in modern day life where no one will admit the obvious. That 1 in 6300 line, even though it's an obvious simple math error, was probably done on purpose solely so 5,000 people would go to reddit and say "dude it's 1 in 6,300 chance, you really think a speedrunner hasn't run a game 6,300 times?" They know the error will come out eventually and they have an easy out to go "oops ya that's a simple error", but the damage is already done at that point. Propaganda has been spammed, brains have been changed.

  49. Dangerous 1A

    Dangerous 1A

    پیش روز

    Just realised that this guy is from "You Have Been Warned"

  50. Eli B

    Eli B

    پیش روز

    WTF??!!?!?!? 4TH?

  51. Rich Galante

    Rich Galante

    پیش روز

    Eyy pyraminxes in the background!

  52. Trias00

    Trias00

    پیش روز

    Pirate Princess Petunia, your name is awesome.

  53. NebelHose

    NebelHose

    پیش روز

    Algorithm

  54. Benoit Wautelet

    Benoit Wautelet

    پیش روز

    One thing still bugs me though, you said it yourself choosing the statistics to calculate after the event it's very easy to have "impossible" events. It's true that this is a case everyone considers lucky but for a game as complex as Minecraft, there is an astonishing great number of "lucky" cases. Maybe enough to compensate? I have no idea.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      These things are corrected for in the original mod paper. Correcting for them, and for the fact that it could have been any speedrunner, yields roughly one in 7.5 trillion.

  55. Finlay Martins

    Finlay Martins

    پیش روز

    If there is anyone I'm going to trust in regards to this controversy, it this guy because not only does he know his stuff but as he mentions, he is completely objective and unbiased

  56. BigMace

    BigMace

    پیش روز

    HE DELETED HIS RESPONSE HAHAHHAHAHA

  57. Dr. Weird

    Dr. Weird

    پیش روز

    This guy watches Summoning Salt i think

  58. Not Serosh

    Not Serosh

    پیش روز

    my maths teacher told us to watch this for online school lol

  59. Nicklas Martos

    Nicklas Martos

    پیش روز

    The odds of dream getting these key outcomes is as likely as picking the right watermolecule in a glass of water or the right grain of sand in the entire Sahara desert on the first try. Everyone convicted on basis of fingerprints or DNA tests should be released long before we contemplate this level of luck

  60. Adam Hopkins

    Adam Hopkins

    پیش روز

    CPD (craps per decade) my new favorite statistic

  61. ThatOneInternetGuy

    ThatOneInternetGuy

    پیش روز

    Wait, you're telling me people are arguing over a *fourth place* run? Just have him do it again!

    • flawed

      flawed

      پیش روز

      he only got fourth place because one of the eyes of ender broke he wouldave gotten first otherwise

  62. Derploop

    Derploop

    پیش روز

    TBH, I don't think it matters. His content is still entertaining and he's still legitimately incredibly good at the game. If he took the 'any publicity is good pubilcity' approach, in this case I just don't care. I'm sure any drama was just Stans on Twitter, and we already know that website is a cesspool that you should never visit. I also don't really care is someone fakes a speedrun of a game that never should have been speedran in the first place. There are so many good elements of minecraft, and its speedrun potential has never been one of them, although its ability to be played as the player chooses to has always been one.

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش 21 ساعت

      so.....screw the entire community of people who DO genuinely care about minecraft speedrunning? That seems a little harsh just because that's not your interest.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش روز

      @Derploop Research on the whole Dream dilemma, thats what I meant. I agree with you that the luck factor can be pretty tedious in Minecraft speedrunning, but in my opinion that doesn't take away the fact that it's still a great game to speedrun. There are many brilliant strategies that can be used and new ones are always popping up. Minecraft really is a beautiful game where almost anything can be done, and some players like to choose the destination of speedrunning. I myself don't speedrun that often but I'm still intrigued by it. Props to you for being an old OG player too, that's pretty epic.

    • Derploop

      Derploop

      پیش روز

      @Fluffy White Llama research on what? I've played minecraft since about a week after rails released if that's what you mean? That's pre-alpha. So, I'd say I'm pretty experienced in the game and more than qualified to provide my opinion, which is that there are better features of minecraft than its questionable suitability for speedrunning. Minecraft has always been a journey before destination game for me, so while I respect that PvP minigames or speedrunning are a totally valid way to play an open ended game, they also make it closed ended, and that misses what makes the game so good in the first place, IMO.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش روز

      How much research have you done? This sounds like an echo of what Game Theory said

    • Magicmeatball

      Magicmeatball

      پیش روز

      All I hear is “I don’t understand anything about the subject but here’s what I think”

  63. Dream 2

    Dream 2

    پیش روز

    Hi

  64. DatFunniestChannel

    DatFunniestChannel

    پیش روز

    2540000th view

  65. StargazingStar

    StargazingStar

    پیش روز

    Mark: "it's like Math's chaff" Me: *frantically googles the meaning of chaff*

  66. abbyatplay

    abbyatplay

    پیش روز

    Keep the beard

  67. jesse wolford

    jesse wolford

    پیش روز

    I was on dreams side after his video but after this I am convinced

  68. Lucas Torres

    Lucas Torres

    پیش روز

    Don't worry Dream, I believe you're lucky enough *-*

  69. Jay

    Jay

    پیش روز

    Well, I'm a researcher in cybersecurity, I must say your calculations are amazing. Something bothers me a little bit tho, especially since you mentioned Punch-Out. You know, Super Mario, Punch-Out and Metroid are all games where odds are being manipulated with the number of frames on the screen. It's not "like" cheating here, it's literally 100% cheating (on purpose) to achieve the desired chain of events. Unlike a game of dices, programming won't offer you the same platform for odds, especially when you stretch your numbers like the 1-century human seconds (which is absolutely fascinating btw thank you for that). I'm a huge fan of speedruns and one common "pattern" to beat the game is to find, well, a pattern quite literally, in the code to reproduce the same scenario over and over again.

    • crash

      crash

      پیش روز

      1.12 allowed RNG manipulation but 1.16 certainly doesn't. But if Dream actively did that, then he would be able to prove it.

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      That applies in normal games however in minecraft it’s not really achievable. It’s a random game seed and the rng has so much white noise it’s effectively impossible to manipulate.

  70. Phoenix D

    Phoenix D

    پیش روز

    Amusing that he spends the first half of the video or so explaining the controversy and reviewing the papers, and then spends the next 10+ minutes just trying to explain to non-mathy folks, *just how insanely* unlikely those odds are.

  71. zerxis blances

    zerxis blances

    پیش روز

    The probability of you're parents having you is unthinkable

    • Joaquin Martinez

      Joaquin Martinez

      پیش روز

      This is like saying to pick any random number, sure, it is a one in an infinite chance that you picked that number, but you were going to pick one.

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      If I throw a dart out a plane and hit a bulls eye on the ground that’s a low probability. If I throw a dart out of a plane, find it and then paint a target around it that’s a 100% probability. You being born is the second scenario. If it weren’t you it would be some other combination of your parents DNA.

    • André Luis

      André Luis

      پیش روز

      Irrelevant. There are trillions of us and the concept of "you" is too abstract. Sure, the chance of someone exactly like you being born again are ridiculous, but there was no "you" measure before you were born, so it's not a relevant standard.

  72. Nuclear Lazer

    Nuclear Lazer

    پیش روز

    Its actually 1 in 600 million said by ant venom

    • thefizzydude

      thefizzydude

      پیش 3 ساعت

      Since when was ant venom a respected mathematician?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Antvenom basically bends over backwards to fudge the numbers in favor of dream. His bias corrections are silly. Also, the one in 600 million he gets is "any livestreamer ever having been as lucky as Dream when you include the non sus set of runs"

  73. René Mouritsen

    René Mouritsen

    پیش روز

    He is 100% cheating. Not even up to debate.

  74. azocrye

    azocrye

    پیش روز

    you remind me of vsauce

  75. Albert Jachowicz-Brzeziński

    Albert Jachowicz-Brzeziński

    پیش روز

    Me and my friends have a very unlucky run. We tried to speeddrun minecraft all together and we traded over 200 gold ingots. And got how many? 1 trade. So now we know that we were SERIOUSLY unlucky. And I mean, we knew it, but it's bad if we had a few promiles of chance for that.

    • Kiblord

      Kiblord

      پیش 10 ساعت

      We’re u in 1.16.3-1.16.5 because they changed pearl rates

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Yeah, that's pretty unlucky. Around once in 1400 attempts you're going to get at least that screwed.

  76. Peruvator

    Peruvator

    پیش روز

    Keep up the good work!!

  77. Stellar

    Stellar

    پیش روز

    He wasn't cheating it's just his gaming chair.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش روز

      Hilarious and original

  78. -ChrispyNi-

    -ChrispyNi-

    پیش روز

    This man looks like Jim Carrey

  79. Christopher Birnbaum

    Christopher Birnbaum

    پیش روز

    as someone who loves minecraft and stats this video was candy. glad to see you doing well on the channel. hope you didn't go mad with the reshoots for getting the trick shots!

  80. Kurt Gardner

    Kurt Gardner

    پیش روز

    This video is even more entertaining to me now than if I watched it at first because I've just finished doing the Binomial Formula in further maths a couple of days ago

  81. januzi2

    januzi2

    پیش روز

    Mathematicians arguing about the child's game. It is just ... lol ("lol" as in "Forsenlol").

    • crash

      crash

      پیش روز

      Why do you care? Some people's hobbies are games and other people's are math. Does anything else matter as long as people are having fun? Stop bullying people just because you don't share interests.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Don't think any mathematicians are arguing about it. They're communicating why it's patently absurd to think this is a legitimate run. The one exception is the expert Dream paid who for some reason is just throwing nonsense at the wall to see what sticks.

  82. Guide Genius

    Guide Genius

    پیش 2 روز

    This also totally assumes that all items drop rates are equal

    • A Grand

      A Grand

      پیش روز

      He literally explained the weight system in the video you watched. How'd you miss that?

    • David Zzz

      David Zzz

      پیش روز

      No it doesn’t lol.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Nope, lmao.

  83. TheStierstorfer

    TheStierstorfer

    پیش 2 روز

    There are 10 kinds of people watching this: Those who understand video game math; And Those who don't.

    • 4N4RCHY

      4N4RCHY

      پیش 21 ساعت

      Binary**

  84. Brendan Podvora

    Brendan Podvora

    پیش 2 روز

    So nice of Jim Carrey to break down the math of dreams speedrun

  85. delta Mico

    delta Mico

    پیش 2 روز

    I don't know if he did use it or not but blaze rods are also affected by looting enchantment...

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      @delta Mico no problem.

    • delta Mico

      delta Mico

      پیش روز

      Thanks for affirmation.

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      He didn’t have looting in any of the streams.

  86. Fill@PieNo!

    Fill@PieNo!

    پیش 2 روز

    Take a bow Maths

  87. TheRedHorseman1208

    TheRedHorseman1208

    پیش 2 روز

    Ngl I thought this guy was Jim Carrey before I clicked on the video lol

  88. Brosylen

    Brosylen

    پیش 2 روز

    While watching the credits, I idly compared the odds of getting each number between 1 and 12 on two six faced dice versus on one twelve faced die. Getting a 7 is the most probable on the 2d6 (1 out of 12) while getting 2 or 12 are the least probable (1 out of 36). On the d12, each result has a probability of 1 out of 12. That has no value at all, and says nothing funny nor complicated or unintuitive. But I thought about writing it because just after computing those, I threw my dice (the two d6 and the d12), and to my astonishment, I got a double 1 on the 2d6 and a 7 on the d12, and I find this result very funny.

  89. David Schweighofer

    David Schweighofer

    پیش 2 روز

    The end is hilarious!

  90. No Name Kallan

    No Name Kallan

    پیش 2 روز

    Now how lucky am I to be favored with such a quality video from the algorithm?

  91. ModernAmericanPro

    ModernAmericanPro

    پیش 2 روز

    If Dream required such amazing luck to get 4th place, wouldn’t that indicate that the top 3 records are also bogus?

    • André Luis

      André Luis

      پیش روز

      Dream would've been 1st place if it wasn't for the fact the portal he got had less eyes placed on it than necessary for the ones on him to he enough, so he had to find and make more. We're it not for that he would've gotten 1st

    • fica games11

      fica games11

      پیش 2 روز

      Better seeds and more skilled runners

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 2 روز

      No because Dream's luck was over a span of 24 hours of runs. Unlike a single world record run which would only last about 20 or so minutes.

  92. Mindhumble

    Mindhumble

    پیش 2 روز

    Hmmm hasn't he basically disproven undirected evolution with this? I guess the "dice" must be weighted by some cosmic being!

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 3 ساعت

      @Mindhumble you still haven't said how that 1:10^160 chance is derived. Can I just say random numbers as probability targets? I estimate that the odds of any gods existing is at the very most 1:10^10^10.

    • Mindhumble

      Mindhumble

      پیش 14 ساعت

      @OmegaAudio previous comment, sorry im losing track of who i said what to.

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش 16 ساعت

      "The calculation in the video i linked had a 10^160 probability so changing the 10^58 number to 10^70 (allowing reactions to occur every trillionth of a second as opposed to every second) would basically still violate the feasability principle." You never linked a video. What are you talking about?

    • Aleph Naught

      Aleph Naught

      پیش 18 ساعت

      @Mindhumble amen

    • Mindhumble

      Mindhumble

      پیش 18 ساعت

      @Aleph Naught i 100% agree, but when it comes down to it, even the most "logical" people are swayed by their bias to not want a God to exist as it would require them to change their actions.

  93. donnald hoang

    donnald hoang

    پیش 2 روز

    It’s to late he already famous

  94. Extranomical

    Extranomical

    پیش 2 روز

    Dream's alibi: "Trust me bro"

  95. Tristan you

    Tristan you

    پیش 2 روز

    2.1k dislikes seesh how much stans came to this video without watching it

    • fica games11

      fica games11

      پیش 5 ساعت

      @Tristan you Still, there are 100 times more likes

    • Tristan you

      Tristan you

      پیش 15 ساعت

      @fica games11 yeah well its not a good like to dislike ration mostly you see 1k -800 dislike but 2.1k? and with 2.5 million views

    • fica games11

      fica games11

      پیش 2 روز

      That's only 1% compared to likes

  96. LOSTOKYO

    LOSTOKYO

    پیش 2 روز

    I didn't know Tom could do math.

  97. HOLYCOWofthesea!

    HOLYCOWofthesea!

    پیش 2 روز

    As a Stats TA and tutor, and a lover of Minecraft and speed runs, I feel this video is right up my alley!!!

  98. Beau Devine

    Beau Devine

    پیش 2 روز

    One time I flipped a coin 50 times and it was tails every single time

    • Joaquin Martinez

      Joaquin Martinez

      پیش روز

      The coin was a paid actor

    • Lars

      Lars

      پیش 2 روز

      It's always heads, no one ever gets tails

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش 2 روز

      Liar. I bet it was all heads.

  99. Jerry Guo

    Jerry Guo

    پیش 2 روز

    This video reminds me of a chapter in “What if?” by Randall Munroe, in which he talked about the probabilities of acing the SAT just by guessing!

  100. Punching Pixels

    Punching Pixels

    پیش 2 روز

    Honest question: what made the 3 record times faster than dreams go so well? Were their runs similarly mathematically improbable or did they just have better skills?

    • David Zzz

      David Zzz

      پیش روز

      The odds were taken from 6 consecutive streams for a large sample size. It’s like rolling a dice 4 times and getting all 6 vs rolling a dice 10000 times and getting 8000 6. The 10000 one is far more lucky.

    • IShoot TheyScore

      IShoot TheyScore

      پیش 2 روز

      @OmegaAudio If I recall the original video correctly, the other videos were siginificantly less lucky than Dream, but were lucky in their own right. There is a graph showing their rate of pick ups and they are all significantly lower than Dream's

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش 2 روز

      From what I understand, the controversy isn't purely based on Dream's single run, but rather observations from multiple runs he did that day in an attempt at the world record. I'm presuming the top 3 record times featured similar amounts of luck on that one particular run, and terrible luck in all others.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش 2 روز

      Dream's run was actually world record pace, but he didn't achieve it because he got slowed down at the end. 1 eye of ender was missing from the portal so he burned a minute or two looking for another one. If that didn't happen it would've been the first place run without a doubt.

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